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15.4 - Yu☆Yu☆Hakusho + PR Companions of Mystical Beasts(Region Lock)
#21
(07-01-2018, 01:53 AM)Sayokyoku Wrote: You're approaching your draw rate example incorrectly, because what is being looked at is the number of draws, not how those draws are split among however many players. Therefore, Gon's draw rate of 1% means that we can expect 50 copies of Gon to appear in the 5000 draws. How those 50 copies are distributed among the 500 players is another thing entirely. A person who got one copy would think it's a 10% draw rate (1 out of 10), while a player who got no copies would think it's 0%, but the numbers should approach 50 out of 5000 overall.
I think no one can prove the drop rates, its just a matter of luck. On the first day of HxH I did 10 draws and got 2 Killuas and 1 Gon, during the rate-up I wanted to collect 3 Gons and was prepared to reach the guaranteed one in 35th draw. Ended up getting a total of 3 Gons 3 Killuas and 3 Kurapika in only 32 draws, 3 pulls short on the guaranteed Gon.
In other cases like Pompeii, I saw a video where a guy got 2 Pompeii in his first 10 draw and 1 each in his 3 other 10 draw and he eventually got 5 Pompeiis in his 40 pulls. I on the other hand only got the guaranteed 1 in 40 lol.

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#22
You can actually prove the draw dates with very high confidence if you have a decent size sample. If the Chinese players were gathering the results of thousands of draws, that would be sufficient to calculate the draw rate with >95% confidence.

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#23
(07-01-2018, 11:46 AM)Altialice Wrote:
(07-01-2018, 01:53 AM)Sayokyoku Wrote: You're approaching your draw rate example incorrectly, because what is being looked at is the number of draws, not how those draws are split among however many players. Therefore, Gon's draw rate of 1% means that we can expect 50 copies of Gon to appear in the 5000 draws. How those 50 copies are distributed among the 500 players is another thing entirely. A person who got one copy would think it's a 10% draw rate (1 out of 10), while a player who got no copies would think it's 0%, but the numbers should approach 50 out of 5000 overall.
I think no one can prove the drop rates, its just a matter of luck. On the first day of HxH I did 10 draws and got 2 Killuas and 1 Gon, during the rate-up I wanted to collect 3 Gons and was prepared to reach the guaranteed one in 35th draw. Ended up getting a total of 3 Gons 3 Killuas and 3 Kurapika in only 32 draws, 3 pulls short on the guaranteed Gon.
In other cases like Pompeii, I saw a video where a guy got 2 Pompeii in his first 10 draw and 1 each in his 3 other 10 draw and he eventually got 5 Pompeiis in his 40 pulls. I on the other hand only got the guaranteed 1 in 40 lol.

(07-01-2018, 12:47 PM)killerwombat Wrote: You can actually prove the draw dates with very high confidence if you have a decent size sample. If the Chinese players were gathering the results of thousands of draws, that would be sufficient to calculate the draw rate with >95% confidence.

^Pretty much this. It's called the 95% confidence interval. Feel free to look it up if you want.

I was careful in my wording when I said that we can expect 50 copies out of 5000, because that's the expectation, not the reality. Just because flipping a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads does not mean you are guaranteed to get heads on the second flip if you got tails on the first. It's the same case with the draws, hence why I keep saying that we have no hard evidence that the draw rate was 3% before. We can make a very good guess through the 95% confidence interval, but the only one who is 100% certain of the rates is MH.

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#24
People have no chill about draws. I didn't get Gon but I'm fine. Got Maya at my first Ancient Seal draw, Azathoth in 5 draws. Luck comes and goes, can't expect to always be lucky in a game whose explicit business model is a gacha draw. I get being disappointed if you have a particular connection to the collab series or whatever, but if you're salty you only got 3 Gons in 90 draws then I don't wanna hear it.

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#25
(07-01-2018, 04:52 PM)Fauxy Wrote: People have no chill about draws. I didn't get Gon but I'm fine. Got Maya at my first Ancient Seal draw, Azathoth in 5 draws. Luck comes and goes, can't expect to always be lucky in a game whose explicit business model is a gacha draw. I get being disappointed if you have a particular connection to the collab series or whatever, but if you're salty you only got 3 Gons in 90 draws then I don't wanna hear it.

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I sometimes wonder if these people lived through the golden age of the Golems. XD
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#26
(07-01-2018, 10:14 PM)Sayokyoku Wrote: I sometimes wonder if these people lived through the golden age of the Golems. XD

Those were the times lol together with the fate sisters and Defensive dragons. And I remember felix being released in the diamond seal haha
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#27
(07-01-2018, 10:47 PM)Altialice Wrote:
(07-01-2018, 10:14 PM)Sayokyoku Wrote: I sometimes wonder if these people lived through the golden age of the Golems. XD

Those were the times lol together with the fate sisters and Defensive dragons. And I remember felix being released in the diamond seal haha

Melog ..... lol
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#28
(07-01-2018, 04:52 PM)Fauxy Wrote: People have no chill about draws. I didn't get Gon but I'm fine. Got Maya at my first Ancient Seal draw, Azathoth in 5 draws. Luck comes and goes, can't expect to always be lucky in a game whose explicit business model is a gacha draw. I get being disappointed if you have a particular connection to the collab series or whatever, but if you're salty you only got 3 Gons in 90 draws then I don't wanna hear it.

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Yeah, I got Atlantis on my 4th ancient seal during Pompeii event, Turings on my 16th and 20th draws, Zhurongs on my 1st and 5th draw, so luck really does comes and go, and sometimes you can really get lucky.

The Chinese forum stat isn't 100% accurate, true, but it is definitely damn close with thousands of draw being taken into account. But I definitely prefer guaranteed draw which ensures you don't go home empty handed after investing so much on a jackpot. Even after rate up, the chance of you getting a rare card is over 20% which is 1 in 5.
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#29
I wanted to find some posts from way back when that had draw %s from those rate ups. My memory is a little foggy but i think i remember kof Iori coming in at 3.5% and mai and kyo around 9%.

Contrast that to way back when Xuan Yuan was a bonus when huang fu duo was like 11%. I dont have the picture but it might be on my old phone. Will check someday.

Do we even know if rate up increases all rates x2? There is no way to go back in time so everything is now on.
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#30
Back on topic, they updated the list with the skill details (StartCD, MinCD, Max Skill level) and there are quite a few Energy Points skills, and thus also 'switch' cards. v15.3 had 4 switch cards, v15.4 probably has the same or even more 'switch' cards.

Don't know if they will be the new series or perhaps PR revolutionary heroes (KaerfNomekop posted an image in the chat which might hint at that).
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